For anyone who didn’t read the first part of this series, please check it out here. I am gambling with £10,000 of my own money and posting the bets and my thoughts on the bookmakers lines here.
First lets look at our last predictions:
My bets for public record
23rd September 08
Liverpool v Crewe, home win. 1/6 odds @ Paddy Power or BlueSquare, £500 staked Successful Bet
Arsenal v Sheffield Utd, home win. 2/5 odds @ high st bookmakers, £1000 staked Successful Bet
For tonights bets, please read on!
Both bets were successful and we profited £400 on the Arsenal game and £83 on the Liverpool game, giving us a total pot to play with of £10,483.
Now lets go onto tonights European (Champions League) games.
Aalborg V Manchester Utd
Manchester Utd are available at 4/11. Aalborg are 9/1 with the draw 3/1. Manchester Utd have gotten off to an extremely poor start domestically, taking only 8 points from a possible 15. They also drew at home in their first Champions League game against Villareal.
Aalborg drew their first game against Celtic. This game was in Scotland with Celtic widely tipped to win by a large margin. However, I see Manchester United being too strong here and I do not see any realistic way Aalborg can even beat a poor Manchester Utd team and would not back them at 9/1.
For this game I am going to do what is called hedging my bets – I am going to place a bet on Manchester Utd to win, and also a smaller covering bet on the draw – basically I am not betting on Manchester Utd to win, I am betting on Aalborg not winning.
When you are betting two outcomes in one game you need to shop around for the best odds, as I mentioned in my first article. I cannot find better than 4/11 (high st bookmakers) for the Manchester Utd Win, but for the draw 77/20 is available from internet bookmaker bet1128.com.
For this game I am going to bet £2000 on the Manchester Utd win @ 4/11. Potential profit £727. However, I want to take out an insurance policy and bet to cover the potential outcome of a draw. Effectively I want to place a bet that if there is a draw, I will not profit but I will not lose. You can swing your bets so that you profit the same whether you get the draw or the away win but I am confident enough I want to take a higher profit in the event of a Manchester Utd win.
To calculate how much “insurance” we need, we divide the draw odds (77/20) = 3.85. We then divide the original stake (£2000) by this number, to give us 2000/3.85 = £520.
So in total we are staking £2520. If Manchester United win we get (4/11)*£2000= £727 + £2000 = £2727 back. If There is a draw then we get (77/20)*£520= £2002 + £520 = £2522 so pretty much breaking even.
Of course you can choose not to back the draw but the long term gambler will look to cover all the angles and find the best value.
Please remember, you are not choosing bets who you think will win – you are looking for bets that show value. If this game goes to plan Manchester Utd win and I gain more than 10%. Do I think Aalborg have a 10% or better chance of winning this game? Absolutely not. So it represents good value from a gambling perspective.
Arsenal v Porto
Arsenal are available at 1/2 with Porto 6/1, the draw being 13/5. Arsenal have had a reasonable domestic start, sitting in 4th on 12 points from 6 games – 2 points behind the leaders. They are coming off a shock 2-1 loss to newly promoted Hull. I think this will actually help them tonight, and spur them on to beat Porto.
Arsenal have some impressive results so far this season, including beating Newcastle 3-0, Blackburn 4-0 and effectively Arsenals reserve team beating Sheffield Wednesday 6-0.
Porto are also sitting in 4th in their league. They have played away twice, drawing both. They beat Fenerbahce 3-1 at home in a European game, but with a scoreline that largely flattered them. At 2-1 and the Turks pushing for an equaliser, Porto got a 3rd deep into injury time.
Arsenal are available at 29/50 with internet bookmaker Betchronicle and I recommend backing them at these odds.
I will be betting £500 at 29/50 for a potential profit of £290.
Villareal v Celtic
Villareal are 1/2, Celtic 6/1 and the draw 13/5. Celtic are coming off a poor European display, being held to a 0-0 draw at home against group minnows Aalborg, who also only had 10 men on the park. On the other hand Villareal were impressive in holding Manchester Utd to a draw at Old Trafford.
Celtic have a terrible away record in the Champions League, losing an incredible 14 of 15 away matches. Of course this run has to end at some time, but I do not expect it to be tonight. Celtic are playing to stay in the competition, if the lose tonight they are effectively out. I can see this game being close, and either finishing in a draw or a Villareal win by 1 goal. I think the lines are fairly set and would recommend no bets.
My bets for Public Record
30th September
Aalborg V Manchester Utd
£2000 away win @ 4/11
£520 draw @ 77/20
Arsenal v Porto
£500 home win @ 29/50
Good luck everyone, feel free to leave your comments and any bets you have placed yourself. I will again be on after the matches to analyse how it went.
